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Warmer Winter Ahead
Warmer Winter Ahead: As we brace ourselves for the approaching winter, scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, have delivered a forecast that is bound to raise eyebrows. They are predicting a warmer winter ahead, with a high likelihood of global average surface temperatures setting new historical records during the 2023-24 winter. Let’s delve into the details of this forecast and understand the factors contributing to this anticipated warmth.
Global Trends: Setting New Historical Records
The researchers emphasize a 95 per cent chance of witnessing new historical records in global average surface temperatures during the upcoming winter. Particularly, regions in the mid-low latitudes of Eurasia and most parts of the Americas are expected to experience an exceptionally warm winter. This prediction is attributed to the reemergence of the El Nino phenomenon after seven years, adding an extra layer of warmth to the global climate.
Why is This Winter So Warm 2023?: El Nino’s Influence – Anomalous Anticyclone Activity
The key player in this weather scenario is a moderate to strong Eastern Pacific El Nino expected during the northern hemisphere winter. This event is poised to trigger anomalous anticyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific, influencing winter climates in East Asia and North America. The researchers detail these findings in their study published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
China’s Temperature Surge: Breaking Records Since 1991
China is anticipated to experience a significant impact, with surface temperatures expected to be more than double the usual temperatures. This projection raises concerns as it could potentially set the highest winter temperature record since 1991, according to the researchers. The study aims to address whether 2023 will witness the warmest winter, following scorching heatwaves experienced during the preceding summer and autumn months.
IMD Forecast for India: Warmer Winter 2023
Warmer Winter Ahead in India: Shifting our focus to India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a warmer-than-usual winter for the country from December 2023 to February 2024. According to M Mohapatra, IMD’s director general, the intensity and frequency of cold waves are expected to be lower than normal in most parts of north, northwest, central, east, and northeast India. This aligns with the IMD’s past forecast for warmer winters in 2022.
Temperature Anomalies in India: A Continuation from Previous Months
The IMD’s data reveals a trend of above-normal temperatures in most parts of the country over the last few months. November 2023 witnessed India recording the third-highest maximum and minimum temperatures since 1901. This anomaly is calculated against the normal temperature range determined for each region between 1971 and 2000.
Detailed Rainfall Prediction: Above-Normal and Below-Normal Patterns
In addition to temperature predictions, the IMD forecast provides insights into rainfall expectations. Above-normal rainfall is anticipated over most parts of the northwest, adjoining areas of central and east India, and some areas of extreme south peninsular India. Conversely, below-normal rainfall is likely over many parts of northeast India, north peninsular India, and adjoining areas of central India.
Expert Insights: Lower Western Disturbances and Cyclonic Impact
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change) at Skymet, corroborates the IMD’s predictions, citing lower-than-normal western disturbances. This not only translates to fewer rain spells but also hinders the influx of cold winds from snowfall-affected states. Additionally, a cyclonic storm is blocking winds from these snowfall-impacted states, contributing to higher-than-normal minimum temperatures.
In conclusion, the forecast of a warmer winter ahead demands attention and preparedness. As scientists and meteorological departments continue to refine predictions, it becomes crucial for individuals and communities to stay informed about the changing climate patterns. Whether it’s setting new temperature records or altering rainfall patterns, understanding these forecasts is essential for adapting and mitigating potential impacts. Stay tuned for updates as we navigate the upcoming winter with the anticipation of a warmer climate.
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